We’re seeing a clear shift across the U.S.: the national housing market is cooling, but I’m not buying the crash narratives. New England is still the strongest region in the country, but nationally to me – it looks like a market correction more than a future crash.
HOUSE PRICES ARE STILL APPRECIATING, JUST MORE SLOWLYTHAN THEY WERE
Some quick facts nationally that we aren’t really feeling in New England:
- Home price appreciation has decelerated. The national Case-Shiller index is up ~1.7% year-over-year — a far cry from the+4%+ pace we saw earlier.
- Month after month, median home prices have softened (five straight months of nominal declines).
- Days on market have climbed — currently averaging ~48 days (that’s the slowest market since 2019).
- New listings are inching up (~2.3% year-over-year), while pending sales are down (~1.3%) — typical signs of balance shifting towardbuyers.
HOW DOES NEW ENGLAND COMPARE?
While national trends matter, here’s what gives me confidence locally:
- Buyers have more leverage now than six months ago — but it’s still a seller’s market.
- Inventory here is still well below pre-pandemic norms, meaning we’re less exposed to oversupply risk.
- New England markets have so far avoided the extremes seen in overheated regions.
IF MARKETS ARE COOLING, WHY ARE YOU CONFIDENT THE MARKETWON’T CRASH?
Historically, housing crashes haven’t happened in isolation—they’ve been triggered by financial stress. In past downturns, people were forced to sell at discounts because they simply couldn’t afford to hold onto their homes.
Today, that pressure isn’t showing up in the data. Homeowners across the U.S. currently hold an estimated $17.8 trillion in equity, and roughly $11.7 trillion of that is considered “tappable” through cash-out refinancing. In other words, if financial strain does begin to build, homeowners have a massive buffer they can access long before they’d consider selling at distressed prices.
It would take a significant and prolonged economic event to burn through that kind of cushion.