JUNE 2025
Welcome to this month’s edition! There’s a ton of negativity about the economy in general right now, real estate is no exception. My search for a little optimism is what made meread a recent article titled “Why the housing market is actually much healthier in 2025”. In reading it, I found it not only refreshingly optimistic, but convincing. I was inspired by Logan Mohtashami’s exercise and use it to make a snapshot of Manchester, New Hampshire’s housing market.
MARKET DATA
Logan starts by defining five key indicators that the housing market is healthy:
1) Supply and Demand are balanced (Metric : Days on Market)
2) Home prices are tracking with what inflation is doing (up or down)
3) Number of home sales are high
4) Housing is affordable
5) Distress volume is low (Metric : Number of foreclosures)
So how has Manchester looked for the past 5 years? Well I don’t need a graph to tell you it’s not affordable, but I do have a few other interesting graphics:
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
HOME PRICES AND INFLATION
NUMBER OF SALES
SO WHAT’S DO THOSE GRAPHS MEAN?
Generally, the original articles point is that for the past 5 years, it’s been an unsustainable seller’s market nationally. The national housing market in 2025 looks more balanced, and that’s healthy. My question would be whether 2025 is the year when it’s transitioning from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market or whether it’s the first of many more balanced years.
However, after diving into the details for Manchester, I would say New Hampshire’s data tells a different story. New Hampshire didn’t experience the same volatility that the rest of the country saw in recent years, likely because supply is so constrained. In 2025 we are seeing a rapid increase in the number of sales, and almost no increase in the number of days on the market. Home prices have increased faster than inflation consistently which could be a sign of unhealthy growth or a sign of a growing geographical market. I think it’s too early to chart house prices for 2025, but an increase in sales without an increase in number of days on the market feels a lot to me like it’s still a seller’s market in New Hampshire, people are just accepting the new normal with interest rates.
As always, we’re looking for 3-50 unit properties in Southern New Hampshire. If you know if anyone looking to sell, we’d love to talk to them.